On Sunday, September 10th at 1:00 ET, the Washington Commanders will host the Arizona Cardinals. Television coverage for this week 1 NFL matchup at FedEx Field will be on FOX.
In a matchup between two NFC teams, the Commanders are 7 point favorites at home. Are they they best bet against the spread? Check out my breakdown and analysis of this matchup below.
Commanders vs. Cardinals Betting Analysis
Against the spread, the Cardinals put together a record of 8-9 on an average scoring margin of -6.4 points per game. As the favorite, the Cardinals were 1-2 vs. the spread while going 7-7 (ATS) as the underdog. Arizona’s over/under record came in at 9-7-1.
Last season, the Commanders put together an ATS record of 8-8-1 which included going 4-4 at home and 4-4-1 at home. The team’s OU record for the season was 5-12 with 10 of their games failing to surpass this week’s line of 38 points.
Last season, the Cardinals and Commanders did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Commanders have the leg up at 2-1. The Commanders also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 36 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
Commanders vs. Cardinals Odds Analysis
On the moneyline, the Commanders have shifted from where they opened at -235 to -318, putting their implied win probability at 76%. The oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals price at +247 with an implied win probability of 29. The Cardinals opened at +190 on the moneyline.
The over/under market has seen a shift since when it opened, with the lines opening at 40.5 compared to where its currently at (38).
The Commanders opened as 5.5 favorites at home and since then, the oddsmakers have shifted the lines to -7 in their favor.
How to Bet Commanders vs. Cardinals in Arizona
Last season, teams that were favored against the spread, went on to cover at a rate of just 44.6%. I like the value in grabbing the Cardinals at +7 in their matchup vs. the Commanders.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 38 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 39 points.
- ArizonaSharp ATS Prediction: Cardinals +7
- ArizonaSharp OU Predict: Over 38
