At 10:30 ET, it’s a week 10 NCAAF battle between the Wildcats and Bruins at Arizona Stadium. Don’t miss it on FS1 as the game takes place on Saturday, November 4th.
UCLA comes into this Pac-12 matchup, as the 2.5 point road favorite. See who I got coming out on top and covering the spread on Saturday.
Wildcats vs. Bruins Betting Analysis
UCLA’s record has improved to 6-2 following their 28-16 win against Colorado as they prepare for this week’s showdown with Arizona.
Against the spread, the Bruins are 4-4 after failing to cover the spread vs. Arizona. The Bruins were favored by 14.5 going into the game. With their last game against Colorado staying below the over/under line of 60.5, UCLA has an over/under record of 2-6 for the season, with a combined total of 44 points.
In the rushing game, the Bruins are currently 15th in college football with 338 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 216.4 rushing yards per game, putting them 11th nationally. Their passing game has averaged 31.2 passes and 251.4 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 43rd, averaging 30.9 points per game.
The Bruins defense faces off against Arizona with 30 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re giving up 15 points per game which is 51st in the nation. Against the pass, they’re 71st in the NCAA, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. UCLA’s run defense is yielding 63.4 rushing yards per contest.
Arizona’s record has improved to 5-3 following their 27-24 win against Oregon State as they prepare for this week’s showdown with UCLA.
The Wildcats have a 4-1 ATS record so far this season, including covering the spread against Oregon State. In their most recent game, Arizona and Oregon State combined for 51 points which was below the over/under line of 57. Arizona’s over/under record this season is 2-6.
On offense, the Wildcats come in with the 28th ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 286 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 73rd in terms of attempts.
As we head into this week’s game, the Arizona defense ranks 78th for points allowed, with an average of 21 points per game. Teams have been gaining 241.8 passing yards per game against them (120th nationally). Against the run, they’ve given up 100.9 rushing yards, placing them 25th in college football.
The last time Arizona and UCLA faced off came last year, ending in a 34-28 win for Arizona. Offensively, Arizona ran for 124 yards and put up 312 in the passing game. On the other side, UCLA ended the game with 465 yards of offense.
Arizona vs. UCLA Odds Analysis
Where the moneyline odds currently stand, UCLA is being given a 58% chance of winning with a ML payout of -139. On the other side, the Wildcats’ implied win percentage is 47% on a moneyline of +114.
The over/under lines for this matchup have remained constant thus far, with the lines holding firm at 52.5. The payout for the over remains at -110, and the under maintains a payout of -112.
From the time the lines were first released, UCLA has transitioned from -2 point favorites to their current line of -2.5 (-111). Conversely, Arizona is currently +2.5 (-110) point underdogs at home.
How to Bet Arizona vs. UCLA in Arizona
I’m leaning towards UCLA with a point-spread at to cover in this matchup. After a strong showing in their last game, where they had a solid ground game against Colorado, UCLA should pick up another win and cover. My bet will be on UCLA to cover the spread before kickoff.
After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 53 points. This projection has me feeling good about taking the over at 52.5.
- ArizonaSharp ATS Predict: UCLA -2.5
- ArizonaSharp OU Predict: Over 52.5
