The Heat and Suns are set to face off at 9:00 ET on AZFa. The Suns will host the game at Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ. The over/under for this non-conference contest is set at 229.5 points, with the Suns being the favored team playing at home against the Heat.
As the Miami Heat take on the Suns, they are the slight 3.5-point underdogs. So far, they are 20-14 and lead the Southeast Division.
Against other teams in the Eastern Conference, the Heat have gone 15-10 compared to 5-4 in non-conference matchups. Miami has also been slightly better on the road this season, as they have gone 11-8 compared to 9-6 at home.
So far, Miami has been the underdog in 15 of their 34 games and have a record of 8-7 in those games. Their average scoring margin as the underdog is -0.3 points per game.
The over/under record in Miami’s games is 16-18, and the under has hit in four straight games. Today’s line of 229.5 is just below the average over/under line of 222.3 for the season.
The Heat’s offense is coming off a game where they scored 110 points, which is right in line with their season average of 112.9 PPG. Bam Adebayo leads the team in scoring at 21.7 PPG, while Jimmy Butler is right behind him at 21 PPG.
So far this season, the Heat defense has been performing well, ranking 6th in the NBA at 111.5 points allowed per contest. The Heat defense is coming off a game in which they held the Lakers offense to just 44.1% shooting. Overall, they gave up 96 points to Los Angeles.
As the Suns get ready to host the Heat, they are 3.5-point favorites at home. Before today’s game, Phoenix is 9th in the West on an overall record of 18-16.
Against other teams in the Western Conference, the Suns have gone 12-12 compared to 6-4 in non-conference games. When playing at home, Phoenix is just .500 for the season at 10-10.
So far, the Suns have been the favorite in 24 of their 34 games and have a record of 15-9 in those games. Their average scoring differential as the favorite is currently +4 points per contest, and they have gone 8-16 ATS when favored.
Phoenix’s ATS losing streak as the favorite is at two games, and the team’s average ATS record at home is 6-14. The over/under record in their games is 19-15, and the over/under lines have split almost evenly above and below today’s line of 229.5. In their previous games with higher over/under lines, their record is 6-10.
In their last game, the Suns put up 122 points vs. the Clippers. They shot 53.2% from the field and made 15 threes. Kevin Durant is leading the team in scoring at 29.9 PPG while Devin Booker is averaging 26.7 PPG.
The Suns’ defense is presently ranked 15th in the league, allowing an average of 114.1 points per contest. In their previous matchup vs. the Clippers, the Suns’ defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 55% leading to 131 points.
The Heat and Suns did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Heat have a record of 2-1. However, against the spread the Suns went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 208 points per game. The last three times, the Heat have matched up against the Suns on the road, they are 2-1 vs. the spread.
How to Bet Suns vs. Heat in Arizona
As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Heat on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline. Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 229.5 and given that our model is projecting 229 points between the teams, we like the under.
- ArizonaSharp ATS Prediction: Heat +3.5
- ArizonaSharp OU Predict: Under 229.5
